The new UK-EU deal on Northern Ireland may not be the bull's-eye the Prime Minister is hoping for | beth rigby (2023)

After two years of stalemate and a lot of bad blood between London and Brussels and the Conservative government and the DUP, Rishi Sunak has tried to pick up the nettle and break the stalemate.

This dead end has strained relations between the UK and the EU and hampered a power-sharing deal in Northern Ireland.

It's the boldest move of his tenure, and it's fraught with danger.

Catch up on the latest updates on the new post-Brexit deal

Take it out and this is a very emboldened embattled PM.

If he fails, Sunak could see his premiership fall under the weight of Brexiteer rebellions, a Boris Johnson revival and ongoing tensions in Northern Ireland.

Where it became clear that Sunak had won on Monday was in Brussels.

The goodwill between the Prime Minister and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was evident.

The Prime Minister called it a "new chapter" in EU-UK relations.while von der Leyen, perhaps thinking of his old adversary Boris Johnson, said that they came out of these talks with a "stronger EU-UK relationship" and praised Sunak's "very constructive attitude from the start to solving problems".

A fresh start, with a fresh approach, resulted in genuine gains as the EU moved forward in ways that many thought was not possible.

Sunak won concessions that many Brexit watchers thought were not possible months ago, when Johnson conceived the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill to unilaterally void post-Brexit trade deals between Northern Ireland and Great Britain (a project now scrapped).

The new deal has an unverified "green lane" for goods crossing the Irish Sea to Northern Ireland, while a "red lane" would be used for goods heading to Ireland and the EU's single market.

The Prime Minister also said the deal would end the situation where food produced to UK standards could not be shipped to or sold in Northern Ireland.

Under the new agreement, Northern Ireland would have the same products, drinks and medicines as the rest of the UK: "We have removed any sense of border in the Irish Sea".

It also rewrites part of the existing protocol to allow Westminster to set VAT rates in Northern Ireland.

The deal also sought to address the "democratic deficit" that has angered union members so much that they do not accept being treated differently from the rest of the UK and resulted in the suspension of the power-sharing assembly in Northern Ireland.

Read more:
PM presents 'Windsor Framework' deal on Brexit
Five main sections of the text
What is the Northern Ireland Protocol?
What are the seven tests of the DUP?

On Monday, the Prime Minister unveiled the "Stormont brake", which sought to resolve the issue of Northern Ireland being subject to EU property laws.

Under a new arrangement, the Stormont assembly will be able to oppose the new rules if a total of 30 members from at least two parties decide to activate the brake.

Sunak said it was a "powerful new safeguard based on cross-community consent".

The question is whether cross-community voting, which requires a majority of unionists and Irish nationalists rather than a direct majority vote, will be sufficient to satisfy the DUP.

And while the prime minister told lawmakers the deal scrapped 1,700 pages of EU law and "puts beyond doubt that we now take back control", officials also conceded that the Windsor Framework does not remove EU law or the jurisdiction of the European Courts of Northern Ireland. .

And the key question in all of this is whether the prime minister's gamble to catch the nettles will pay off? He's clearly won over Brussels and Ms von der Leyen, but he now has far more prickly characters to bring on board, and the outcome is still far from certain.

Unsurprisingly, the DUP is playing its cards close to its chest, as we'd expect.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said that while "significant progress" had been made, "there is no hiding the fact that in some sectors of our economy EU law still applies" and said the DUP would now look into carefully the details of the agreement.

Unionists are also awaiting legal advice and a verdict from the European Research Group's 'star chamber' of lawyers, who will closely scrutinize this deal, as they did Theresa May and Boris Johnson, to see whether this deal restores British sovereignty.

Much depends on what the trade unionists decide.

As one veteran Brexiteer told me this week, it would be "rude" for a Conservative MP not to support a deal if the DUP is satisfied.

Sunak has certainly won over some of his Brexit supporters today.

A senior figure told me: "It looks really good and it's better than I expected", while Northern Ireland and Brexiteer Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris and Northern Ireland Minister Steve Baker urged their colleagues to support the deal.

"I would resign if I felt I couldn't support the deal. So, you know, I'm backing it wholeheartedly," Baker told Sky News late on Monday.

But there are also rumors that this may not be the success Sunak hopes for.

When I asked one of the top Brexiteers how significant it was that fellow travelers Heaton-Harris and Baker were satisfied, they replied that they are both "just salespeople" and that it was the ERG's job to review this text.

"A quick read makes it clear that the EU and ECJ apply to this agreement," the senior Conservative said, adding that the threshold for the Stormont brake was too high.

"This is like a quote. It sounds good from day one until the details start to unravel," they said.

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As for Johnson, he too is biding his time to see how this business sinks in. Sources close to him say that the former prime minister "continues to study and reflect on the government's proposals".

Nº 10 is delighted with the way the day went, with a senior figure telling me “it couldn't have gone better”.

This is a watershed moment that could prove to be a breakthrough not only in restoring the power divide in Northern Ireland, but also in restoring relations with the EU and the Sunak government.

So far, he has been a disappointing prime minister who has failed to impress his party or the public. Do that and you could have that honeymoon you missed when you took the crown last fall.

What is clear is that Sunak needs something major to move from a No. 10-ranked caretaker prime minister to a credible one who has at least a chance to change the Conservatives' fortunes ahead of the 2024 election.

He and his team know that finally sticking the Brexit needle where those that came before have failed would be a great start.

The question is, will your enemies allow it?